Foreclosures Down — But Are They?

June 12, 2009

We are getting some more mixed news this morning on national foreclosures.  On one hand, foreclosures have dropped compared to last month.  On the other hand, the number of foreclosures is above 300K which is still a HUGE number historically.  Now that the foreclosure moratorium is beginning to lift, we will definitely see some of this type activity for a while.

In today’s Washington Post, they write:

Foreclosure filings fell in May compared with the previous month, but remain at elevated levels, according to data from RealtyTrac released today.

The firm counted 321,480 filings nationally, which can range from default notices to bank repossessions. That was down 6 percent from April, but an increase of nearly 18 percent from May 2008. RealtyTrac, a private firm, says its data include more than 90 percent of U.S. households.

Despite the dip, this was the third month in a row that foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 and the third highest monthly total since the firm began collecting the data in 2005, according to RealtyTrac. The company estimates that in a normal market, filings would fall to under about 100,000 a month.

via Foreclosure Filings Fall in May - washingtonpost.com.

As we move forward through the coming months, we will continue to see a lot of mixed data such as this.

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Housing Inventory Drops Again - The Market Continues To Improve

June 10, 2009

A number of news outlets are reporting today that housing inventory, which is the amount of homes that are for sale, dropped 3.9% this month.  In some areas of the country, housing inventory is actually returning to almost normal levels: of course in others, things are very much out of kilter.

This ties in very much with our data that we recently showed in the Tampa market where cash buyers where going turbo.  See: Tampa Cash Buyers Fuel Local Market.  As market begin to return to normal, we are going to see lots of mixed signals (some good, some bad).

While we are not predicting an INSTANT market rebound, we are seeing consistent pieces of information that this market is trying to turn.

See Wall Street Journal Article On Housing Inventory

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Florida Existing Homes Sales Up —- Again

March 29, 2009

There is a interesting trend starting to develop in Florida with existing homes sales now up for 6 straight months on a year over year basis.

Existing home sales rose 20 percent last month, with a total of 9,858 homes sold statewide compared to 8,181 homes sold in February 2008, according to FAR.  February’s statewide existing home sales were 16.7 percent higher than January’s statewide sales.

floridaYou have to realize thought that many, many of these sales are coming from discounted sales.  According to the Florida Association of Realtors,

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $141,900; a year ago, it was $199,300 for a 29 percent decrease. Industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) report a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures.

From our perspective however, anything that reduces total inventory on the market is definitely a good sign.

Click this LINK to get a good chart of how each of the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) did across the state.

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