Poof - An Instant Housing Fix?
April 3, 2009, Writen by: Chris Anderson, Ph.D
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Regardless if you are bullish or bearish on this market, what if something was planned that could radically change the real estate market…… almost overnight.
On April 1st, we offered a poll to determine the percentage of people that are bearish on this market and those that are bullish. The chart below shows those results as of the time this article was written.
Click Here To Register Your Poll Vote
Out of the people that participated in the poll, 21 indicated that they were bearish, while the majority indicated that they were bullish. Unfortunately, in my opinion, there is no right or wrong answer…… you simply have to interact with the market based on your beliefs.
One of the comments we received indicated that the person believed that the “real bottom” was 2012 - 2013. Unfortunately, none of us will know until 2014 if that is true. For that person, with their beliefs, probably the right strategy for them is waiting until that date….. it doesn’t mean that their approach is right (or wrong), but at least it lines up with their personal beliefs.
But What If It Changed With The Stroke Of A Pen?
As a real estate investor, one of the difficulties that we face is that market conditions change much faster than we can react. For example, many people were absolutely shocked at the rapidity that the real estate market stopped selling in mid 2005.
Now, let’s consider another potential event that could also have a major impact: the Making Home Affordable (MFA) Initiative. You can learn more here. Under this initiative, some of the 3 to 4 million homeowners eligible for loan modifications could see interest rates as low as 2 percent.
I wonder what this could do to the current “conventional wisdom” prevalent right now with many professional real estate players. Their view simplified is that:
- We are at the beginning of a wave of adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) Recasts;
- When these recast, especially option ARMs, tons more inventory will flood the market;
- This inventory will likely be in place for years to come.
But what if, with a pen stroke, that picture changes and now more people can stay in their home. In turn, this means that we rapidly start to work through existing inventory, which then decreases supply. Now, the building industry comes out of hiding, hires more people which then improves jobs, which increases demand, etc., etc.
PLEASE DON’T MISUNDERSTAND. I am not predicting the above. Most of the big money investors I know gave up on “predicting” years ago. They make decisions based on the real data in front of them TODAY and when they see a deal that makes sense TODAY, and has a high probability of making sense TOMORROW, then they act.
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Who Is "REALLY" Making $ In Today's Real Estate Market?
Our 29,689 Members Tend To Agree...
It's Usually Not The GURUs
Have you ever noticed that every "Guru" real estate pitch sounds the same........
They once were poor, but now are rich working only 5 hours per week, and you can be rich too if you just buy their "can't fail system".
Or have you noticed that every property promote has a can't miss proposition, if you just buy TONIGHT.
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